Season win total best bets for 2019 college football

Steve has done these the past two years and gone 8-3 (73%). Here's his first three picks for this fall.

Early win totals are out for the top teams in college football. These are the ones that I think typically offer the best value, because the data available is limited when it comes to public consumption. The preseason magazines are just now coming out, which help to set the market (particularly Phil Steele's), so if you do your homework like I do (see that as you're a nerd) you can get ahead of the curve. Here are the three teams I like the most so far and why:

Michigan State OVER 7.5

I think Sparty will have the best defensive front seven in the Big Ten, and maybe all of college football. Heck, they did last season, too. But when the injury bug bites a team as hard as it did Michigan State a year ago, it tends to course correct the next season. My preseason numbers had Sparty overrated last preseason when they were getting all the hype. This year, they have Michigan State as one of the most underrated teams. Especially with a 3-0 start in the non-conference all but a guarantee. That's half the battle right there.

Mississippi State UNDER 8

The Bulldogs only got to 8 wins last year with one of the best quarterbacks in school history, and the most talented defense in school history. Now, they have neither. However, they're still unfortunately in the rugged SEC West. My preseason numbers have Mississippi State with a bottom third roster in the league for 2019.

Texas A&M OVER 7.5

This is the same win total the Aggies had last year, and they were one of my best bets and cashed. You can't tell me Jimbo Fisher, one of the top 3 coaches in the game, won't be any better with another full year to recruit and develop. Yes, they play one of the toughest schedules in the country, but they also have a top 10 overall roster in the nation according to my numbers. There's no way Fisher can't squeeze at least 8 wins out of a roster this talented, regardless of the schedule.

As more win totals are released this summer, I may have a few more so stay tuned.

Comments