A Jersey Guy and The Locksmith Pick 6: Week 7

One step forward and two steps backward. So it goes in the business of picking games against the spread each week. After three successive above .500 weeks, we stumbled with a 2-4 mark, foolishly taking a chance on Rutgers and Maryland, the two Big Ten newcomers.
The Locksmith had an even tougher week, going 0-2.
But we push on.


The Games

New Mexico at Colorado State O/U 67

Colorado at USC (-7)

Wisconsin at Michigan (-9.5)

Baylor at Texas (-17)

Georgia at LSU O/U 52.5

Michigan State at Penn State O/U 48.5


Purdue (-10.5) at Illinois

Michigan State at Penn State (13.5)

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A Jersey Guy

New Mexico at Colorado State O/U 67

Two MWC teams that can score a lot of points and don't play a lot of defense. Which means both teams are capable of scoring more than 35 points and incapable of preventing their opponent from scoring less than 30. We'll take our chances on a shoot out which will top the Over of 67.

The Score: Colorado State 42, New Mexico 33.

Colorado at USC (-7)

Colorado, as the Pac-12's only unbeaten team, isn't getting a whole lot of respect. USC may be getting too much respect here. We think Colorado will give USC trouble the entire game. Taking Colorado and the 7 points.

The Score: USC 27, Colorado 23

Wisconsin at Michigan (-9.5)

A Big Ten elimination game. The loser is out of the CFB Playoff picture and even the winner might need some help in making the Final Four. Just because Michigan suddenly found its game face last week doesn't mean we are drinking the Maize and blue cool-aid. Wisconsin is a good team, getting points. We don't like the Badgers enough to win, but we do think they will cover.

The Score: Michigan 24, Wisconsin 20

Baylor at Texas (-17)

Texas beats Oklahoma and lots of people are jumping on the Texas bandwagon. Not so fast my friend. Baylor, under Matt Rhule has become competitive. Texas is not mature enough to avoid a letdown game. Giving 17 points is too much. Taking Baylor and the points.

The Score: Texas 31, Baylor 21

Georgia at LSU O/U 50.5

Georgia's first real test against a quality opponent on the road. Georgia needs to win the game to stay in the hunt for the CFB playoffs. So does LSU. Looks like an SEC defensive showdown to us. Taking the under.

The score: Georgia 21, LSU 17

Michigan State at Penn State O/U 48.5

Michigan State has gone belly up the entire season. Penn State needs to win and put up style points as well to impress the selection committee. Tempted to take Penn State all the way, but Michigan State still has some pride (we think). O/U looks a little low. Both teams could pass the 48 point mark by halftime. Taking the Over.

The Score: Penn State 42, Michigan State 24 

Last week: 2-4

Season to Date: 19-16-1

The Locksmith

PENN STATE over Michigan State, giving 13 1/2

Nittany Lions get two things they desperately need here after that wrenching loss to Ohio State: An off week followed by a return home against a wobbly Michigan State. Spartans come off a 29-19 loss to Northwestern and QB Brian Lewerke (6 INTs, 6 TD passes) seems to have regressed. Statistically, Michigan State is ranked first nationally against the run, but Penn State QB Trace McSorley adds a different dimension to the running game. Hard to see MSU coming back if it falls behind early with one of the country's worst pass offenses -- and a bad pass defense that McSorley can shred.

Purdue over ILLINOIS, giving 10 1/2

Back to reality for the one-dimensional Illini after their laugher at Rutgers. With the ability only to run the ball, Illinois can get in trouble on offense when things bog down. Boilermakers have recovered nicely from an 0-3 start by beating Boston College and Nebraska and look to be much improved. A big day by QB David Blough reminds Illinois why it's near the bottom of the Big Ten.



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