Jersey Guy and The Locksmith's Pick 6: Week 3

OK. Let's cut to the chase quickly. A Jersey Guy has always been quick to recognize a hot hand in gambling and never been bashful about riding the wave if possible.

After two weeks of the college football season, we are a dismal 4-7-1 after last week's 1-5-1 wipeout. Our buddy The Locksmith is a spotless 4-0 after two weeks of selections.

So we are moving him into the spotlight--let's see how he handles the pressure.


The Locksmith

Missouri (-7) at Purdue

Vanderbilt at Notre Dame (-14)

A Jersey Guy

Florida State at Syracuse O/U 68

Vanderbilt at Notre Dame (-14)

LSU at Auburn O/U 45

Alabama at Mississippi O/U 71

New Mexico at New Mexico State O/U 57

Ohio State vs. TCU (Arlington, Texas) O/U 60[membership level="0"] The rest of this article is available to subscribers only - to become a subscriber click here.[/membership] [membership]


The Locksmith

Missouri over PURDUE, giving 7

Judging by Drew Lock's performance last week (395 passing yards with four TDs and 51 rushing yards with a score) and what the senior has one this season (eight TD passes, 0 interceptions) I think what we're seeing is the maturity of a talented QB who has the benefit of three years of experience. It's not that Lock was an unknown coming into this season -- he passed for more than 3,000 yards each of the past two seasons -- but the decision-making and leadership have been impressive so far. And now he has a go-to guy in Emanuel Hall. Boilermakers have two bad losses ( to Northwestern, beaten by Duke last week, and to Eastern Michigan) and have started two different QBs in an attempt to generate some consistent offense. But it's their penchant for penalties and a pass defense that allows an average of 291 yards per game (107th nationally) that will be the bigger issues here.

NOTRE DAME over Vanderbilt, giving 14

We've seen this Vandy routine before. Wasn't it just last year that the Commodores started 3-0, outscoring opponents by a combined 84-13, until they started playing real teams? They didn't win again after that start until November. They're 2-0 now but their offense has been average at best. Defense has been the overriding strength, just as it was last year. The combination of Vandy's 2-0 start and last week's Ball State performance will have Notre Dame's attention this week. The big key: Can Brandon Wimbush cut down on his mistakes? The running game is there. The defense is there. Just a feeling that the Fighting Irish are sitting on a big performance. They were bound to let down after the opening game win against Michigan. And this is Vandy's first road game.

Last week: 2-0
Season to date vs. spread: 4-0

Home team in CAPS

A Jersey Guy

Florida State at Syracuse--FSU has looked horrible in two games, Syracuse has been a scoring machine, and is playing at home. We don't know what FSU will do, but the O/U is 68 which we feel is a wee bit too high. We're taking the under

The Score: FSU 31, Syracuse 28

Vanderbilt at Notre Dame--The Irish had a let down game after taking care of Michigan and looked sluggish in beating Ball State. Vanderbilt has breezed past Middle Tennessee and Nevada by a combined score of 76-17. The Commodores could put up a better fight than Ball State, which means we like getting 14 points. An outright upset is possible

The Score: Notre Dame 23, Vanderbilt 14

LSU at Auburn--Auburn is nasty again-especially on defense. LSU surprised some people by rolling over Miami. So did Miami. But the Tiger defense is also solid, which makes the under at 45 very attractive.

The Score: Auburn 19, LSU 12

New Mexico at New Mexico State O/U 57

Bad football in the Land of Enchantment. New Mexico has been mediocre, New Mexico State has been worse than that, allowing an astonishing 137 points in three early season losses. The Over/Under might be shattered by halftime

The Score: New Mexico State 42, New Mexico 35

Alabama at Mississippi--Tide is on its usual roll, Ole Miss has been a scoring machine (123 points) in two games, but has been a sieve on defense (68 points). Bama's defense will shut down the Rebel offense and the Tide will score enough but not go wild. Taking the under at 71.

The Score: Alabama 45, Ole Miss 21

Ohio State vs. TCU (Arlington, Tx).--Buckeyes finally face a test--and on the road--against the Frogs who are pesky as usual. The Buckeyes will have their third and final game without Urban Meyer and might actually miss him in this game. But we're going to be cautious and not touch the two touchdown spread favoring the Buckeyes. We will count on TCU's defense slowing down the Ohio State offense. Taking the Under at 60 is the way to go.

The Score: Ohio State 31, TCU 24

Record last week: 1-5-1

Season to date: 4-7-1 [membership]