Mr. CFB's Pick Six: Week 7

Okay. We went 3-3 last week as Texas A&M beat Kentucky (24-17) and covered the 5 ½, Texas won straight up (48-45) over Oklahoma, and Notre Dame easily covered the 7 in winning at Virginia Tech 45-23.

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Now we need a very good week because we are still four games below .500 (17-21) ATS on the season.

So here are six more games that are submitted for your approval. Remember, these are for “entertainment” purposes only.

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*****

The game: Georgia at LSU (plus 7 ½)

The skinny: It’s hard to believe that LSU is a home underdog by over a touchdown but here is the situation: If LSU (5-1, 2-1 SEC) loses this game the SEC West race is basically over. It would mean that every team in the SEC West—except Alabama and Texas A&M—would have two losses. Alabama already holds the tiebreaker over Texas A&M. So LSU has to win this game to make its date with Alabama on Nov. 3 meaningful.

Georgia, however, is a more talented team, especially on offense, and the Bulldogs have been waiting on a game where the opponent would challenge their manhood. They get their wish at Tiger Stadium.

Logic says LSU MUST win this game and that, even if Georgia wins, that is just too many points to cover. But this is no time for logic. Take Georgia and give the 7 ½.

The score: Georgia 24, LSU 14.

*****

The game: Texas A&M at South Carolina (Plus 2 1/2).

The skinny: South Carolina won a thriller last week against Missouri (37-35) with its backup quarterback. Now starter Jake Bentley returns against a Texas A&M defense that is good (82.5 ypg) against the run but struggles against the pass (244.8 ypg). Texas A&M won a tough game (20-14 OT) over Kentucky at home last week and has an open date next week. That is a recipe for coming out flat.

But Texas A&M is going to shut down the run and bet that Bentley can’t beat them. He won’t.

Take Texas A&M and lay the 2 ½ .

The score: Texas A&M 27, South Carolina 24.

*****

The game: Florida at Vanderbilt (Plus 7)

The skinny: The Gators (5-1, 3-1) are feeling good after last week’s emotional 27-19 win over LSU. They are also back in the SEC East race with a date against Georgia coming up in two weeks. In each of the past three seasons Florida has played poorly against Vanderbilt but has found a way to win ugly.

But Dan Mullen wasn’t coaching those teams. He IS coaching this Florida team and that is going to make a big difference on Saturday in Nashville. Vanderbilt is 3-1 at home this season but none of those wins was against SEC competition. Take the Gators and give the points.

The score: Florida 24, Vanderbilt 10.

*****

The game: Tennessee (plus 15) at Auburn.

The skinny: The line for this game started with Auburn being a 20 1/2 –point favorite. But then the line shot down when people realized how badly Auburn’s offense is struggling. The Tigers were just brutally bad in losing 23-9 Mississippi State last week as they failed to rush for over 100 yards for the third straight week. The natives at Auburn are restless. Tennessee has had a week off to get ready. I think Auburn will win an ugly game but take Tennessee and the 15 points.

Score: Auburn 24, Tennessee 14 (Plus 15).

*****

The game: Ole Miss at Arkansas (plus 7).

The skinny: Arkansas (1-5, 0-3) has shown some signs of life the past two weeks, playing Texas A&M tough (24-17) and scoring 31 on Alabama in a 65-31 loss. Ole Miss (4-2, 0-2) is third in the SEC in scoring (42.3 points per game) but been outscored 107-23 in its two SEC games. It is tempting to take the points and say Arkansas is due for a breakthrough at home. But I can’t pull the trigger on that one. Ole Miss has too much talent on offense. Take the Rebels and lay the points

The score: Ole Miss 38, Arkansas 28.

*****

The game: Missouri (plus 27) at Alabama.

The skinny: Alabama gave Nick Saban something to fuss about last week as Arkansas scored 31 points. But the Crimson Tide scored 65. And that’s the problem if you’re playing the Nation’s No. 1 team. Against a normal Nick Saban team 31 points might be enough to win. But this team ain’t normal. Not by a long short.

Missouri has a first-round draft choice at quarterback in Drew Lock (297.4 yards passing per game) and an already young Alabama secondary has lost its best player, cornerback Trevon Diggs (broken foot) for the rest of the season.

Also note that Alabama’s pinball wizard/quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, has been a little gimpy in practice this week.

So let’s live a little. Alabama wins, of course, but the Tide doesn’t cover the 28.

The score: Alabama 52, Missouri 27 (plus 28).

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