Pick Six: Week 5

We went 2-4 last week because:

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**--Nick Saban likes Jimbo Fisher and didn’t keep the hammer down. As a result Alabama, which had scored 50 points in each of its first three games, scored “only” 45. Bama won by 22. The line was 25.5.

**--Georgia missed its wakeup call for an 11 a.m. kick at Missouri. The No. 2 Bulldogs won by 14 (43-29. The spread was 14.5.

And that, boys and girls, how you go 2-4 instead of 4-2. I just flat out missed Kentucky’s beat down (28-7) of Mississippi State and Tennessee’s total collapse against Florida (47-21).

So after four weeks we are 11-15 against the spread. So we press on: [membership level="0"] The rest of this article is available to subscribers only - to become a subscriber click here.[/membership] [membership]

*****

The game: South Carolina (plus 1) at Kentucky, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network.

Over/Under: 51.5

The Pick: Kentucky

The score: Kentucky 24, South Carolina 21

The Skinny: Kentucky (4-0, 2-0 SEC) is 2-0 in the SEC for the first time since 1977. There has been quite a celebration in Lexington since the 28-7 win over No. 14 Mississippi State last week. Now the question becomes: Can Kentucky handle success before a sellout crowd at Kroger Field? This game started as a pick’em and now the Wildcats are just a one-point favorite at home. Kentucky has won four straight over South Carolina.

*****

The game: Florida (plus 7) at Mississippi State, 6 p.m., ESPN.

Over/Under: 50.5

The Pick: Mississippi State

The score: Mississippi State 28, Florida 17.

The Skinny: Dan Mullen, who took Mississippi State to eight bowls in nine seasons as head coach, returns to Starkville as the head coach of Florida. It will be a very intense atmosphere for that reason alone. But also, after losing to Kentucky (28-7) last week, this is a game that Mississippi State and new coach Joe Moorhead have to have to avoid an 0-2 start in the conference..

******

The game: Ole Miss (plus 11) at LSU, 9 p.m., ESPN

Over/Under: 59.5.

The Pick: LSU

The score: LSU 31, Ole Miss 17.

The Skinny: LSU (4-0, 1-0) sleepwalked for the first three quarters last week but managed to beat Louisiana Tech 38-21. The Tigers have been elevated to No. 5 in the polls. Ole Miss has one of the best groups of wide receivers in the country but they also have one of the worst defenses. This game should really not be close.

*****

The game: Arkansas (plus 21) vs. Texas A&M, Noon, ESPN

Over/Under: 60

The Pick: Texas A&M

The score: Texas A&M 35, Arkansas 10.

The Skinny: Texas A&M (2-2, 0-1) hung in there against Alabama before falling 45-23 last week in Tuscaloosa. Most teams have a physical hangover from playing Alabama and the Aggies will be no different. It won’t really matter as struggling Arkansas has the worst offense in the SEC at 25.5 points per game.

*******

The game: Tennessee (plus 30.5) at Georgia, 3:30m p.m., CBS

Over/Under: 51.5

The Pick: Georgia

The score: Georgia 42, Tennessee 10

The Skinny: Georgia (4-0, 2-0) didn’t play particularly well at Missouri last week but still picked up a 43-29 win on the road. Now the Bulldogs return home against a Tennessee (2-2, 0-1) team that looked absolutely dreadful in a home 47-21 loss to Florida. Georgia is infinitely more talented and, if Tennessee turns the ball over, this one will get out of hand quickly.

*****

The game: Ohio State at Penn State (plus 3), 7:30 p.m., ABC

Over/Under: 70.5

The Pick: Penn State.

The score: Penn State 35, Ohio State 31

The Skinny: The winner will have the inside track in the Big Ten East and will be thrust into a favorite to make the College Football Playoff. It will be a matchup of two of the best quarterbacks around in Penn State’s Trace McSorley and Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins. It will also be the traditional “white out” game at State College. Ohio State will be without its best defensive lineman, Nick Bosa.

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